What is a good shot? This seemingly simple question holds a key point in soccer. Since all players are not at the full level of understanding, this article breaks shooting into 3 levels.
Level 1 Explanation: Get as close as one can when shooting. Do not shoot outside of the penalty box.
Level 2 Explanation: Weigh which option gives the best chance of scoring:
Shooting versus dribbling or passing to get an Improved Shot
Step 1) Find the Shooting Value:
Find your location on the given diagram. The percentage that goes along with the zone tells you the chance of scoring.
Example: If you are in the Penalty Area zone, your odds of scoring is 13.1% as shown in the diagram.
Step 2) Find the Improved Shot Value:
Step 2a) Estimate the best “chance of advancing” into the next zone.
Example: If you have one defender in front of you, you may estimate you have a 50% chance of getting by the defender. Looking at your past success rate at getting by a defender can help to estimate this chance.
Step 2b) Find the shooting percentage of the zone you want to advance into.
Example: Getting past the defender gets you into the goal area which has a shot value of 38.2%.
Step 2c) Divide the chance of advancing by 100 and multiply it with the new zone shooting percentage
Example:
Chance of Getting by the defender is 50%
Shot value of the new zone is 38.2%
Equation: 50/100 x 38.2% = 19.1%
Step 3) Choose the higher percentage option, shooting or trying to advance the ball to get an improved shot.
How to Choose:
If “Shooting Value” is greater than “Improved Shot Value“, Shoot.
If “Shooting Value” is less than “Improved Shot Value“, attempt to advance the ball to get an improved shot.
Example:
Shot value of shooting from the penalty area is 13.1%
Improved Shot Value is 19.1%
Shot Value (13.1%) is less than the “Improved Shot Value” (19.1%), so attempt to advance the ball to get an improved shot.
Level 3 Explanation: For Level 3, use the same strategy as Level 2 where you weigh what gives a higher chance of scoring, shooting or passing/dribbling the ball to get a better shot. With Level 3, memorize the percentages of each area on the pitch to get a more exact estimate versus relying on the zones in the diagram above.
Additionally, consider these factors when estimating the scoring percentage:
• Defenders in front of you blocking the shot
• The spot of the goalie
• Skill level of the goalie
• Penalties
• Part of the body used (strong foot, weak foot, head, etc.)
•One’s own ability
•Other relevant factors
Resources such as this article can help you get a better estimation on the odds of your shooting percentage.
Level 3 should only be used by advanced players. If one spends too much time trying to calculate the value of their shot, they can get out of “the zone” and lose their ability to react fast to the game.